A new report lays out the path for the nation's transition to a net-zero economy by 2050. 

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) Draft 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP) (PDF) outlines an optimal development path of generation, storage, and transmission investments necessary to meet the evolving energy needs of Australian homes and businesses.

Over the past 18 months, AEMO has engaged in extensive collaboration with over 1,300 stakeholders, producing 60 presentations and reports, and reviewing more than 110 submissions from a diverse range of industry, consumer, community representatives, and governments. 

This collaborative approach has been instrumental in shaping the future of the National Electricity Market (NEM).

AEMO's CEO, Daniel Westerman, emphasised the urgent need for investment to ensure Australians continue to have access to safe, reliable, and affordable energy. 

“The plan maps out urgent investment so that homes and businesses continue to access reliable and affordable electricity, both in the coming decade when 90 per cent of coal generation is expected to retire, and beyond to 2050,” he stated.

The Draft 2024 ISP proposes significant enhancements to Australia's energy infrastructure, including the addition of nearly 10,000 km of new and upgraded transmission by 2050. 

This expansion is expected to triple grid-scale variable renewable generation by 2030 and increase it seven-fold by 2050. 

The plan also calls for a near four-fold increase in dispatchable storage, hydro, and gas-powered generation by 2050, alongside a substantial increase in rooftop solar capacity.

Westerman further highlighted the evolving landscape of Australian energy, noting the likelihood of coal power stations closing earlier than planned. 

The Draft 2024 ISP takes into account various factors, including government energy policies, net-zero commitments, and future trends in electricity consumption. 

It is based on the ‘step change’ scenario, deemed the most likely for planning activities, incorporating input from a broad spectrum of experts and stakeholders.

“To identify the optimal development path to 2050, we used Australia’s most comprehensive set of power system and market models to assess the benefits and risks of more than 1,000 potential pathways,” said Westerman. 

He also pointed out that delivering the identified transmission projects could avoid $17 billion in additional costs to consumers.

The report also acknowledges the potential challenges in the transition, including market and policy settings, social licence, and supply chain issues. 

AEMO invites stakeholders to participate in upcoming consultations and provide written submissions before 16 February 2024, with the final 2024 ISP to be completed by 28 June 2024.